分析指電動車價格在 2024 年將與燃油車齊平，目前最棒的電池仍在特斯拉手上::DDCAR 電動車

雖然全球消費者都陸續開始擁抱電動車，但當前的電動車成本與車價依然比同級燃油車要高，因此仍有不少消費者在期待「油電平價」的時代可盡快到來。

根據瑞銀分析師的最新報告，油電平價的來臨不需再等太久，預計 2024 年就可實現。

近期各大機構都針對油電平價時間點做出預估，而且結果各有不同。

諮詢公司 Oliver Wyman 為金融時報 (Financial Times) 所進行的研究報告就指出，油電平價的實現日期將會在 2030 年以後；中國電池大廠寧德時代的董事長則是預測，電動車價格預計 2025 年就可和燃油車齊平，進入油電平價時代。

而瑞銀旗下的瑞銀實證實驗室 (UBS Evidence Lab) 日前所公布的 最新報告結果 ，則顯示「油電平價」的來臨會比寧德時代董事長預測的要更早一點，在 2024 年就會到來。

特斯拉新電池 2022 年才會大規模量產！馬斯克：Semi、Cybertruck、Roadster 長遠受惠最多 <a data-ctorig="https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/1030/%E7%A6%8F%E6%96%AF%E5%B0%87%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA-70-%E8%90%AC%E5%85%83%E6%9C%89%E6%89%BE%E7%9A%84%E3%80%8C%E7%9C%9F%E2%80%A7%E5%B9%B3%E5%83%B9%E3%80%8D%E9%9B%BB%E5%8B%95%E8%BB%8A" data-cturl="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/1030/%25E7%25A6%258F%25E6%2596%25AF%25E5%25B0%2587%25E6%258E%25A8%25E5%2587%25BA-70-%25E8%2590%25AC%25E5%2585%2583%25E6%259C%2589%25E6%2589%25BE%25E7%259A%2584%25E3%2580%258C%25E7%259C%259F%25E2%2580%25A7%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E3%2580%258D%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjAJegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1vVP0yad-00fxu-omOZ5QK" dir="ltr" href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/1030/%25E7%25A6%258F%25E6%2596%25AF%25E5%25B0%2587%25E6%258E%25A8%25E5%2587%25BA-70-%25E8%2590%25AC%25E5%2585%2583%25E6%259C%2589%25E6%2589%25BE%25E7%259A%2584%25E3%2580%258C%25E7%259C%259F%25E2%2580%25A7%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E3%2580%258D%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjAJegQIAxAC&usg=AOvVaw1vVP0yad-00fxu-omOZ5QK" target="_blank">福斯將推出 70 萬元有找的「真‧平價」電動車

瑞銀實證實驗室認為，2022 年電動車生產成本還會比燃油車高 1,900 美元 (約合台幣 5.4 萬元)，但很快在 2024 年時，電動車的額外成本將會完全消失，代表距今四年之後，電動車價格就會和燃油車持平。

瑞銀也補充說明，二年之後的 2022 年，車用電池成本將可能會降到每 100 美元 / kWh 以下，而在 2025 年時電動車全球市佔率約 17％，到了 2030 年則是預期會達到 40％ 左右。

<a data-ctorig="https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12863/%E7%89%B9%E6%96%AF%E6%8B%89%E5%B9%B3%E5%83%B9%E9%9B%BB%E5%8B%95%E8%BB%8A%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%8E%A1%E7%94%A8%E7%A3%B7%E9%85%B8%E9%90%B5%E9%8B%B0%E9%9B%BB%E6%B1%A0%EF%BC%8C%E4%BB%A5%E9%95%B7%E6%95%88%E8%80%90%E7%94%A8%E7%82%BA%E9%96%8B%E7%99%BC%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83" data-cturl="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12863/%25E7%2589%25B9%25E6%2596%25AF%25E6%258B%2589%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A%25E5%258F%25AF%25E8%2583%25BD%25E6%258E%25A1%25E7%2594%25A8%25E7%25A3%25B7%25E9%2585%25B8%25E9%2590%25B5%25E9%258B%25B0%25E9%259B%25BB%25E6%25B1%25A0%25EF%25BC%258C%25E4%25BB%25A5%25E9%2595%25B7%25E6%2595%2588%25E8%2580%2590%25E7%2594%25A8%25E7%2582%25BA%25E9%2596%258B%25E7%2599%25BC%25E6%25A0%25B8%25E5%25BF%2583&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjABegQICBAC&usg=AOvVaw1LUJs8r4qgX_7CnWHFBxpQ" dir="ltr" href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12863/%25E7%2589%25B9%25E6%2596%25AF%25E6%258B%2589%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A%25E5%258F%25AF%25E8%2583%25BD%25E6%258E%25A1%25E7%2594%25A8%25E7%25A3%25B7%25E9%2585%25B8%25E9%2590%25B5%25E9%258B%25B0%25E9%259B%25BB%25E6%25B1%25A0%25EF%25BC%258C%25E4%25BB%25A5%25E9%2595%25B7%25E6%2595%2588%25E8%2580%2590%25E7%2594%25A8%25E7%2582%25BA%25E9%2596%258B%25E7%2599%25BC%25E6%25A0%25B8%25E5%25BF%2583&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjABegQICBAC&usg=AOvVaw1LUJs8r4qgX_7CnWHFBxpQ" target="_blank">特斯拉平價電動車可能採用磷酸鐵鋰電池，以長效耐用為開發核心 <a data-ctorig="https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12803/%E7%89%B9%E6%96%AF%E6%8B%89%E4%B8%89%E5%B9%B4%E5%85%A7%E6%8E%A8%E5%87%BA-75-%E8%90%AC%E5%85%83%E6%9C%89%E6%89%BE%E7%9A%84%E5%B9%B3%E5%83%B9%E9%9B%BB%E5%8B%95%E8%BB%8A%EF%BC%8C%E8%87%AA%E5%8B%95%E8%BC%94%E5%8A%A9%E9%A7%95%E9%A7%9B%E5%8A%9F%E8%83%BD%E4%B8%80%E6%A8%A3%E4%B8%8D%E6%9C%83%E5%B0%91%EF%BC%81" data-cturl="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12803/%25E7%2589%25B9%25E6%2596%25AF%25E6%258B%2589%25E4%25B8%2589%25E5%25B9%25B4%25E5%2585%25A7%25E6%258E%25A8%25E5%2587%25BA-75-%25E8%2590%25AC%25E5%2585%2583%25E6%259C%2589%25E6%2589%25BE%25E7%259A%2584%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A%25EF%25BC%258C%25E8%2587%25AA%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BC%2594%25E5%258A%25A9%25E9%25A7%2595%25E9%25A7%259B%25E5%258A%259F%25E8%2583%25BD%25E4%25B8%2580%25E6%25A8%25A3%25E4%25B8%258D%25E6%259C%2583%25E5%25B0%2591%25EF%25BC%2581&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw1lg2DaAAc0AX3BIfQfsTAQ" dir="ltr" href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/12803/%25E7%2589%25B9%25E6%2596%25AF%25E6%258B%2589%25E4%25B8%2589%25E5%25B9%25B4%25E5%2585%25A7%25E6%258E%25A8%25E5%2587%25BA-75-%25E8%2590%25AC%25E5%2585%2583%25E6%259C%2589%25E6%2589%25BE%25E7%259A%2584%25E5%25B9%25B3%25E5%2583%25B9%25E9%259B%25BB%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BB%258A%25EF%25BC%258C%25E8%2587%25AA%25E5%258B%2595%25E8%25BC%2594%25E5%258A%25A9%25E9%25A7%2595%25E9%25A7%259B%25E5%258A%259F%25E8%2583%25BD%25E4%25B8%2580%25E6%25A8%25A3%25E4%25B8%258D%25E6%259C%2583%25E5%25B0%2591%25EF%25BC%2581&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwiWos6EgtTsAhXQyosBHW4LDPUQFjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw1lg2DaAAc0AX3BIfQfsTAQ" target="_blank">特斯拉三年內推出75 萬元有找的平價電動車，自動輔助駕駛功能一樣不會少

瑞銀實證實驗室動用了多達 12 位的分析師，並藉由分析當前 7 個最大電池製造商的電池才得出這個結論；之所以針對電池成本，是因為電池佔整台電動車成本的 25% ~ 40%，可說是影響電動車價格的最關鍵因素。

在成本之外，瑞銀實證實驗室也認為日本松下與特斯拉合資生產使用的電池仍然是當今最好，但特斯拉目前的電池成本的領先幅度並不大，未來是否能拉開差距？將取決於特斯拉的全新 4680 電池。

特斯拉全新 46800 電池發表！5 倍能量、16% 續航里程提升、生產成本降低 14% <a data-ctorig="https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/13509/Model-S-Plaid-%E6%94%B9%E5%BE%88%E5%A4%A7%EF%BC%81%E9%A6%AC%E6%96%AF%E5%85%8B%E8%AD%89%E5%AF%A6%E6%8E%A1%E7%94%A8-4680-%E6%96%B0%E9%9B%BB%E6%B1%A0%E7%B3%BB%E7%B5%B1%EF%BC%8C%E8%83%8C%E5%BE%8C%E9%82%84%E6%9C%89%E5%A4%9A%E5%B0%91%E7%A5%95%E5%AF%86%E9%82%84%E6%B2%92%E8%AC%9B%EF%BC%9F" data-cturl="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/13509/Model-S-Plaid-%25E6%2594%25B9%25E5%25BE%2588%25E5%25A4%25A7%25EF%25BC%2581%25E9%25A6%25AC%25E6%2596%25AF%25E5%2585%258B%25E8%25AD%2589%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E6%258E%25A1%25E7%2594%25A8-4680-%25E6%2596%25B0%25E9%259B%25BB%25E6%25B1%25A0%25E7%25B3%25BB%25E7%25B5%25B1%25EF%25BC%258C%25E8%2583%258C%25E5%25BE%258C%25E9%2582%2584%25E6%259C%2589%25E5%25A4%259A%25E5%25B0%2591%25E7%25A5%2595%25E5%25AF%2586%25E9%2582%2584%25E6%25B2%2592%25E8%25AC%259B%25EF%25BC%259F&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwibuLXggdTsAhUzy4sBHWqxBDgQFjACegQICRAC&usg=AOvVaw0ChikPLOagbncMNkggLGNL" dir="ltr" href="https://www.google.com/url?client=internal-element-cse&cx=ee4c42b2033f51633&q=https://www.ddcar.com.tw/blogs/articles/detail/13509/Model-S-Plaid-%25E6%2594%25B9%25E5%25BE%2588%25E5%25A4%25A7%25EF%25BC%2581%25E9%25A6%25AC%25E6%2596%25AF%25E5%2585%258B%25E8%25AD%2589%25E5%25AF%25A6%25E6%258E%25A1%25E7%2594%25A8-4680-%25E6%2596%25B0%25E9%259B%25BB%25E6%25B1%25A0%25E7%25B3%25BB%25E7%25B5%25B1%25EF%25BC%258C%25E8%2583%258C%25E5%25BE%258C%25E9%2582%2584%25E6%259C%2589%25E5%25A4%259A%25E5%25B0%2591%25E7%25A5%2595%25E5%25AF%2586%25E9%2582%2584%25E6%25B2%2592%25E8%25AC%259B%25EF%25BC%259F&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwibuLXggdTsAhUzy4sBHWqxBDgQFjACegQICRAC&usg=AOvVaw0ChikPLOagbncMNkggLGNL" target="_blank">Model S Plaid 改很大！馬斯克證實採用4680 新電池系統

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